How to Expect the Unexpected: The Science of Making Predictions and the Art of Knowing When Not To [Book]

A Waterstones Best Popular Science Book of 2023 'Delightfully clear and vivid to read... A splendid book! Philip Pullman 'Absolutely fascinating' James O'Brien 'An exceptional book - readable, funny and more needed than ever' Dr Chris van Tulleken, bestselling author of Ultra-Processed People · Are you more likely to become a professional footballer if your surname is Ball? · How can you be one hundred per cent sure you will win a bet? · Why did so many Pompeiians stay put while Mount Vesuvius was erupting? · How do you prevent a nuclear war? Our job is to separate the good from the bad. And that can have disastrous consequences.

How to Expect the Unexpected will teach you how and why predictions go wrong, help you to spot phony forecasts and give you a better chance of getting your own predictions correct.